Nowcasting Induced Seismicity at the Groningen Gas Field in the Netherlands
Abstract
The Groningen natural gas field in the Netherlands has recently been a topic of controversy for many residents in the surrounding area. The gas field provides energy for the majority of the country; however, for a minority of Dutch citizens who live nearby, the seismicity induced by the gas field is a cause for major concern. Since the early 2000's, the region has seen an increase in both number and magnitude of events, the largest of which was a magnitude 3.6 in 2012. Earthquakes of this size and smaller easily cause infrastructural damage to older houses and farms built with single brick walls. Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk. In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the natural gas fields in Groningen, Netherlands. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say , and one small say . The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occur between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that have occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time, which it does in this case. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of earthquakes in Groningen to nowcast the number of earthquakes in Groningen. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build up of seismicity between 2004 and 2016. It can now be used to forecast the expected reduction in seismicity associated with reduction in gas production.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.S11E..01L
- Keywords:
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- 7209 Earthquake dynamics;
- SEISMOLOGY;
- 7215 Earthquake source observations;
- SEISMOLOGY;
- 7260 Theory;
- SEISMOLOGY