Effects of Climate Change on Diffuse Pollution in Lake Mogan Watershed
Abstract
Climate change is putting increasing pressure on water bodies. It can affect the behavior of pollutants in the environment and their interaction with the hydrological cycle. For instance, changing precipitation patterns may result in higher volumes of runoff containing numerous contaminants to water bodies and eventually loss of life-supporting function of them. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on diffuse pollution in Lake Mogan watershed located in a climate change vulnerable region and where agricultural diffuse pollution is one of the significant concerns. Lake Mogan watershed has an area of 970 km2 and it is dominated by dry agricultural practices and characterized by intermittent creeks. The lake was declared as a special environmental protection region in 1990. In this study, the impacts of climate change on diffuse pollution in the Lake Mogan watershed was evaluated using with a water quality model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). SWAT is a conceptual, continuous time model that operates on a daily time step. The model has been used in many studies to estimate the impacts of climate change, to calculate pollutant loads and to evaluate the best management practices all over the world. The required inputs for SWAT model can be categorized under the following basic categories: topography, land use/land cover, soil properties, land management practices occurring in the watershed, and meteorological inputs. According to Turkish Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs (2016), it is estimated that the annual average temperature values will increase up to 3.3°C during the 85 year projection period as compared to reference period in the RCP4.5 scenario in the study area. This increase is predicted as up to 5.7°C based on the RCP8.5 scenario. The calibrated SWAT model for the Lake Mogan Watershed is used for the climate change scenarios for a period of 2010 and 2100. It is aimed that the outcomes of this study will help decision makers to develop beneficial management strategies so that the sustainable management of the specially protected water body is provided.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.H53H1564A
- Keywords:
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- 1831 Groundwater quality;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1848 Monitoring networks;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1849 Numerical approximations and analysis;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1871 Surface water quality;
- HYDROLOGY