Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California
Abstract
There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our long-term insights to recent events and statewide trends. This comparative modeling exercise shows that increased public awareness during droughts can be related to systematic changes in the way diverse communities respond to near- and long-term conservation incentives.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.H43R..02G
- Keywords:
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- 1803 Anthropogenic effects;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY