A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models

Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.