The Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow (CHARIS): Understanding the source and trends of cryospheric contributions to the water balance
Abstract
The Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow, or CHARIS, project is systematically assessing the role that glaciers and seasonal snow play in the freshwater resources of Central and South Asia. The study area encompasses roughly 3 million square kilometers of the Himalaya, Karakoram, Hindu Kush, Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges that drain to five major rivers: the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. We estimate daily snow and glacier ice contributions to the water balance. Our automated partitioning method generates daily maps of 1) snow over ice (SOI), 2) exposed glacier ice (EGI), 3) debris covered glacier ice (DGI) and 4) snow over land (SOL) using fractional snow cover, snow grain size, and annual minimum ice and snow from the 500 m MODIS-derived MODSCAG and MODICE products. Maps of snow and ice cover are validated using high-resolution (30 m) maps of snow, ice, and debris cover from Landsat. The probability of detection is 0.91 and precision is 0.85 for MODICE. We examine trends in annual and monthly snow and ice maps and use daily maps as inputs to a calibrated temperature-index model and an uncalibrated energy balance model, ParBal. Melt model results and measurements of isotopes and specific ions used as an independent validation of melt modeling indicate a sharp geographic contrast in the role of snow and ice melt to downstream water supplies between the arid Tien Shan and Pamir ranges of Central Asia, where melt water dominates dry season flows, and the monsoon influenced central and eastern Himalaya where rain controls runoff. We also compare melt onset and duration from the melt models to the Calibrated, Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Earth Science Data Record. Trend analysis of annual and monthly area of permanent snow and ice (the union of SOI and EGI) for 2000 to 2016 shows statistically significant negative trends in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. There are no statistically significant trends in permanent snow and ice in the other basins and no statistically significant trends in SOL, the renewable and seasonal component of snow and ice cover, in any of the five basins. This work gives a better understanding of the current hydrologic regime to guide realistic estimates of the future availability and vulnerability of water resources in these regions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.C33D1232R
- Keywords:
-
- 0720 Glaciers;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 0736 Snow;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 0744 Rivers;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE