Boreal Forest Permafrost Sensitivity Ecotypes to changes in Snow Depth and Soil Moisture

Changes in the global climate, pronounced especially in polar regions due to their accelerated warming, are expected by many global climate models to have large impacts on the moisture budget throughout the world. Permafrost extent and the soil temperature regime are both strongly dependent on soil moisture and snow depth because of their immense effects on the thermal properties of the soil column and surface energy balance respectively. To assess how the ground thermal regime at various ecotypes may react to a change in the moisture budget, we performed a sensitivity analysis using the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model, which simulates subsurface temperature dynamics by solving a one-dimensional nonlinear heat equation with phase change. We used snow depth and air temperature data from the Fairbanks International Airport meteorological station as forcing for this sensitivity analysis. We looked at five different ecotypes within the boreal forest region of Alaska: mixed, deciduous and black forests, willow shrubs and tundra. As a result of this analysis, we found that ecotypes with higher soil moisture contents, such as willow shrubs, are most sensitive to changes in snow depth due to the larger amount of latent heat trapped underneath the snow during the freeze up of active layer. In addition, soil within these ecotypes has higher thermal conductivity due to high saturation degree allowing for deeper seasonal freezing. Also, we found that permafrost temperatures were most sensitive to changes in soil moisture in ecotypes that were not completely saturated such as boreal forest. These ecotypes lacked complete saturation because of thick organic layers that have very high porosities or partially drained mineral soils. Contrarily, tundra had very little response to changes in soil moisture due to its thin organic layer and almost completely saturated soil column. This difference arises due to the disparity between the frozen and unfrozen thermal conductivities of the soil. In highly saturated soils, the frozen thermal conductivity of the soil can be more than double that of the unfrozen thermal conductivity while in dryer soils that ratio reduces down to less than 1.5. This difference allows the seasonal freezing to penetrate quicker and deeper causing even more latent heat to be released and trapped.