Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

Hurricane Joaquin (2015) was the most intense Atlantic hurricane with a non-tropical origin during the satellite era. In addition to its rapid intensification, Joaquin was noteworthy for the difficulty in forecasting its post-recurvature track to the northeast after having struck the Bahama Islands. Such a track typically leads to a decay as the hurricane moves poleward over colder water, and Joaquin had an extreme decay rate from 135 kt to 65 kt in only 30 h. The focus of this study is on the environmental and internal factors that interrupted this extreme decay at 1800 UTC 4 October, and then how Joaquin re-intensified to 75 kt and maintained that intensity for 30 hours. The real-time Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (SHIPS) database is used to calculate each six hours six environmental variables that Hendricks et al. (2010) had found contributed to intensity change. Only the deep-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) from SHIPS, and also from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), had a well-defined relationship with both the interrupted rapid decay and the subsequent constant intensity period. A special dataset of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) at 15-minute intervals prepared by CIMSS is then utilized to create a continuous VWS record that documents the large ( 15 m s-1) VWS throughout most of the rapid decay period, and then a rapid decrease in VWS to moderate ( 8 m s-1) values at and following the rapid decay period. Horizontal distributions of these CIMSS VWSs demonstrate that during this period Joaquin was located in a large gradient region between large VWSs to the north and near-zero VWSs to the south, which was favorable for sustaining Joaquin at hurricane intensity.