Multidecadal variations of solar radiation reaching the surface and the role of aerosol direct radiative effects

Incoming solar radiation drives the Earth's climate system. Long-term surface observations of the solar radiation reaching the surface (RSFC) have shown decreasing or increasing trends, often referred to as solar "dimming" or "brightening", in many regions of the world in the past several decades. Such long-term variation of RSFC mostly reflects the change of the solar-attenuation components within the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past decades with 50-80% reduction in North America and Europe but an increase of similar magnitude in East and South Asia since 1980, mirroring the change in RSFC over those regions. This has led to suggestions that aerosols play a critical role in determining RSFC trends. This work is to assess the role of direct radiative effects of aerosols on the solar "dimming" and "brightening" trends with modeling studies. First, we will show the trends of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol surface concentrations in different regions from 1980 to 2009 with remote sensing and in-situ data as well as model simulations, and attribute those changes to anthropogenic or natural sources. We will then show the trends of RSFC from the model and compare the results with observations from the surface networks and satellite-based products. Furthermore, we will use the GOCART model to attribute the "dimming/ brightening" trends to the changes of aerosols through the direct radiative effects. Finally, we will discuss the way forward to understand the aerosol effects on RSFC (as well as on other climate variables) through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions.