Forecast of quasi-stationary solar wind parameters based on EUV images and magnetograms in 24 solar cycle
Abstract
Forecasting of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) parameters is important for automated prediction of the geomagnetic and radiation conditions in the near-Earth's environment. SDO solar images representing the location of quasi-stationary SW coronal sources, such as large coronal holes, small areas of open magnetic fields near active regions, give the needed information for such analysis. The different coronal sources correspond to the different plasma temperatures and can be easier and better identified using different EUV spectral bands. We use the EUV solar images centered at different wavelengths (19.3, 21.1 and 17.1 nm}) obtained by AIA/SDO and the solar magnetograms obtained by HMI/SDO for the automated separation of different types of SW sources and filaments. Several simple models were created for estimating the SW parameters using properties of coronal SW sources in different spectral bands. The operational model was developed by combining the responses of various simple models. The combination of empirical relationships for different spectral bands in the frames of the hierarchical approach allows improving SW forecast. Model validation has been carried out by comparison of calculated and measured solar wind speed at L1 point. Implementation of this operational model in Space monitoring data center is under development.
- Publication:
-
41st COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- July 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016cosp...41E1798S