Tectonic stress accumulation in Bohai-Zhangjiakou Seismotectonic Zone based on 3D visco-elastic modelling

Future earthquake potential in the Bohai-Zhangjiakou Seismotectonic Zone (BZSZ) in North China deserves close attention. Tectonic stress accumulation state is an important indicator for earthquakes; therefore, this study aims to analyse the stress accumulation state in the BZSZ via three-dimensional visco-elastic numerical modelling. The results reveal that the maximum shear stress in the BZSZ increases gradually as the depth increases, and the stress range is wider in the lower layer. In the upper layer, the maximum shear stress is high in the Zhangjiakou area, whereas in the lower layer, relatively high values occur in the Penglai-Yantai area, which may be affected by the depth of the Moho surface. Besides, weak fault zones will be easily fractured when the maximum shear stress is not sufficiently high due to their low strengths, resulting in earthquakes. Therefore, based on the modelling results, the upper layer of the Zhangjiakou area and the lower layer of the Penglai-Yantai area in the BZSZ in North China are more likely to experience earthquakes.