Contrasting decadal and centennial timescale warming patterns aroundGreenland in CMIP5 models
Abstract
Late 21st century projections of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble exhibit robust subsurface oceanic warming around the Greenland ice sheet, but its magnitude, and vertical and horizontal distribution, varies widely. Here we investigate the time evolution of the 3-D warming pattern in different ocean sectors around the ice sheet, comparing CMIP5 warming patterns to the observed warming of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and near-Greenland oceans in the past two decades. Our analysis suggests that oceanic and/or atmospheric mechanisms underlying century-timescale warming: 1) differ across models and 2) are distinct from observed decadal-timescale temperature variability. In addition to century timescale trends, we also highlight the presence and/or absence of decadal-timescale warming events analogous to the mid-1990's warming in the subpolar gyre across the AOGCM ensemble.
- Publication:
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American Geophysical Union, Ocean Sciences Meeting
- Pub Date:
- February 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUOSPC54C2269L
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 4262 Ocean observing systems;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERALDE: 4504 Air/sea interactions;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICALDE: 4513 Decadal ocean variability;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL