The Past Earth Network
Abstract
Forecasts of climate rely on model projections, but derivation of sophisticated climate models from first principles is not currently feasible. Therefore, evaluating climate models with observations is essential. The development and improvement of global climate models is currently only based on comparison with and tuning to historical observations of climate (the instrumental record). Models show a range of sensitivities when predicting the future climate response to the emission of greenhouse gases. This indicates that the evaluation of models using observations of historical climate is insufficient. A wide variety of different climate states are recorded in the geological record (spanning greenhouse to icehouse scenarios). The modelling of past climates, in combination with data from the geological record, provides a unique laboratory to evaluate the ability of models to forecast global change. The Past Earth Network is developing a shared, multi-disciplinary vision for addressing the challenges encompassed by the following four network themes: (1) Quantification of error and uncertainty of data: The uncertainties inherent in different forms of climate data must be well-understood. (2) Quantification of uncertainty in complex models: The uncertainties in the output of the (complex and high-dimensional) models in use must be well-understood. (3) Methodologies which enable robust model-data comparison: Appropriate methods for model-data comparison must be used. (4) Forecasting and future climate projections: This theme synthesizes the results from the first three themes in order to assess and ultimately improve the ability of climate models to forecast climate change. By addressing these four challenges, results produced by the Past Earth Network will help to better understand and reduce the uncertainties in climate forecasts and ultimately will contribute to the development of better climate forecasts.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMPP31C2294H
- Keywords:
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- 3344 Paleoclimatology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 4912 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- PALEOCEANOGRAPHYDE: 4928 Global climate models;
- PALEOCEANOGRAPHYDE: 4944 Micropaleontology;
- PALEOCEANOGRAPHY