The 2015-16 El Nino - Manifestation and US Impacts
Abstract
The impacts of ENSO, especially in the USA, are well studied. Given the past success at forecasting El Niño events and identifying their teleconnections to different parts of the country, there is a relatively well publicized understanding of the potential impacts, and the possible directions of management response. Consequently, a special course at Columbia University took advantage of the ongoing El Niño event in Winter/Spring 2016 to assess the forecasts of the potential impacts, forms of forecast-related communication, and the actual outcomes in selected sectors and regions of the USA. The students reviewed past literature and were exposed to webinars from leading scientists, NOAA specialists, and water managers from across the country. From their research and observations, the students developed a series of papers documenting and assessing the trajectory of the El Niño event with respect to climate forecasting, impacts in a specific location, and/or impacts on a specific sector. This presentation will highlight the findings of the group as well as consider the process of conducting such a course. Key points covered by the student research were: 1) the accuracy of forecasts of the significant teleconnections, and where and what may be responsible for the divergence from expectation; 2) how the forecasts were communicated by NOAA and others, and how they were manifest in formal and informal media; 3) the impacts on the water systems in California and Florida, and how water agencies adapted; 4) impacts on marine biology, fisheries and coral reef bleaching; 5) impacts on the skiing industry in the Western USA; 6) changes in the spatio-temporal influenza outcomes; 7) impacts on the winter/spring vegetable and orange production in California and Florida; and 8) an assessment of the overall economic impacts.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMPA13B1979F
- Keywords:
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- 3309 Climatology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4352 Interaction between science and disaster management authorities;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 6344 System operation and management;
- POLICY SCIENCES