Impacts of human behavior heterogeneity on the benefits of probabilistic flood warnings
Abstract
Flood predictions and warnings are intended to reduce flood-related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient for mitigating flooding damage, as people have varying responses and reactions after receiving flood warnings. This study develops an agent-based modeling framework that considers human behavioral heterogeneity and residential density in flood warning-response systems. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood-warning scenarios. The results show that the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings (i.e., flood warnings with high prediction accuracies and/or longer lead times) is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk-tolerant manner, especially in high-density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavior heterogeneity on the benefit of flood warnings, and thus highlight the importance of considering human behavior heterogeneity in simulating flood warning-response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavior heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate the benefit of flood warnings.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMNH54A..05D
- Keywords:
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- 4303 Hydrological;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4321 Climate impact;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment;
- NATURAL HAZARDS