Korean mean and extreme sea levels projection under AR5 climate change scenarios using Monte-Carlo simulations

Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise. However, the preparation capability for sea level rise of South Korea is insufficient. Global sea level rise due to climate change is causing a lot of damage to the coastal zone. In addition, since the coastal population in South Korea shows a growing trend, many coastal cities are likely to become more vulnerable to sea level rise. The impacts of future sea level rise will affect shoreline erosion, the disappearance of coastal wetlands, the intrusion of sea water, and increased flood vulnerability due to the performance reduction of the hydraulic structures. The purpose of this study is to estimate the increase amount of the Korea sea level rise under AR5 climate change scenarios. The study area is Busan, Incheon, Mokpo, and Sokcho, which are coastal cities representing South Korea. In order to consider the global and local components for future sea level rise at the same time, the accelerating rates of sea level rise for each city are first calculated using the global rate of sea level rise presented in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. After that, the local sea level rise trend derived from observations of each city is additionally considered, and the final future sea level rise is projected. In addition, uncertainties included in the acceleration rate from the global sea level rise and localized upward trend derived from local observations are reflected in probabilistic projection of the future sea level rise range. In a similar way, the extreme sea level rise is also estimated. Simulation results show that extreme sea levels in 2100 could rise by more than 1 meter. It is also expected to increase the rate of sea level rise gradually with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The results of this study will be utilized for flood vulnerability assessment in coastal areas of South Korea later. AcknowledgementThis research was supported by a grant `Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change' [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.