Simulation of an Extreme Off Season Rainy Event over Senegal Using WRF ARW Model: A focus on dynamic, thermodynamic processes and predictability
Abstract
This study investigates less known weather events, Off Season Rain affecting during boreal winter Western parts of Sahel region mainly, Senegal, Cape Verde and Mauritania. They are characterized by cloudy conditions at mid level, which can trigger light long lasting rains. In January 2002, an extreme case occurred from 09 to 11th producing unusual heavy rains, which had dramatic consequences on livestock and irrigated crops. The Weather and Research Forecast model (WRF ARW version 3.4) is used to simulate the event, which affected the western coast around the land/ocean interface and caused huge damages in Senegal and Mauritania. The model was able to reasonably simulate the event and its intensity 2 to 3 days in advance, demonstrating the usefulness of such a tools for early warning system (EWS), which could help mitigate the impacts. The location of the rain band was closer to the observed situation in higher resolution domains. The study showed keys dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with the event. Precipitable water (PW) evolution played a central role on the intensity of the event. The deep trough, associated with the disturbance, forced a northeast transport of moisture from the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Ocean towards Senegal and Mauritania.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMNG32A..03S
- Keywords:
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- 9820 Techniques applicable in three or more fields;
- GENERAL OR MISCELLANEOUSDE: 3238 Prediction;
- MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICSDE: 4410 Bifurcations and attractors;
- NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICSDE: 4430 Complex systems;
- NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS