How spatial scale influences novel and disappeared climate predictions in Alaska
Abstract
Climate projections suggest that by the end of the 21st century, Earth may experience climates not found at present, and some present-day climates may disappear. These changes may produce species range shifts, novel communities, increased extinction and expansion risk, altered disturbance regimes, and other ecological responses. Data on historical species ranges support the idea that where past climates lack modern analogs, this led to novel species associations and biomes with no modern equivalent. Thus, quantifying novel and disappeared climates can lead to insight into changes in plant communities. The spatial resolution of climate used to predict novel and disappearing climates is an essential property to consider when conducting analyses on plant-climate interactions. Prior studies have suggested that coarse-scale climate data averages climate over broader areas leading to less environmental variability and overestimation of species ranges. In this study, we assessed how the spatial scale of climate surfaces influences predictions of novel and disappeared climates from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present day in Alaska. To accomplish this, we produced downscaled climate surfaces (shortwave radiation, minimum and maximum temperature, rain, snow, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water deficit) to scales ranging from 60m to 100km resolution for the LGM and present day. From this, we quantified the distribution of disappeared climates (climates that existed during the LGM but had no modern analog) and novel climates (climates that exist today, but had no past analog) across all scales. Overall, we found a general trend in which novel and disappeared climates were more common at coarser spatial resolutions. At finer resolutions, the impacts of topographic complexity (which were averaged out at coarser scales) led to the presence of microclimates that had analogs in both time periods, although these similar climates were often in different locations. Truly novel or disappeared climates between the LGM and modern day were less common when climate variability at finer scales was taken into account. Our results highlight the importance of topographic complexity in predicting climate variability and preserving biodiversity in the presence of climate change.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMGC42A..04M
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1632 Land cover change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1640 Remote sensing;
- GLOBAL CHANGE