Environmental change and hydrological responses in the interior of western Canada: Towards improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction by the Changing Cold Regions Network
Abstract
The past several decades have been a period of rapid climatic and environmental change. In western Canada, as in other areas globally, warming and changes in precipitation have led to vast reductions in seasonal snowcover and freshwater ice cover, retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, changing forest composition and structure, increasing northern shrub coverage, and earlier timing of river flows in spring. Yet streamflow volume has exhibited a variety of responses across the region and over different time scales, and patterns of change are not easily generalizable. Improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of the rapidly changing components of the Earth system are key to managing uncertain water futures, but this is challenging due to complex system behavior and sometimes compensatory responses. The Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) is a Canadian research network and GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Project that is addressing these issues, with a geographic focus on the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins. This paper will present examples of the changes that have been observed at a set of long-term and well-studied headwater research basins, and highlight how various processes confound hydrological responses here, pointing to the need for careful diagnosis. We will discuss some recent CCRN activities and progress toward improving conceptual understanding and developing scenarios of change for the 21st century, which can then be applied within process-based hydrological models for future prediction. Several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN will be recommended.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMGC41H..03D
- Keywords:
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- 0744 Rivers;
- CRYOSPHEREDE: 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets;
- HYDROLOGY