Telecoupled governance of land use change: Sustainable palm oil conservation benefits limited by preferential certification

Dozens of trans-national corporations have made public commitments to purchase only zero-deforestation palm oil, a commodity responsible for substantial tropical forest loss. Eco-certification is a basic requirement of most such forest-related procurement policies, and >20% of palm oil was certified in 2015.While the impact of certification on deforestation in oil palm plantations has never been tested, such evaluation is critical to inform improvements of voluntary sustainability initiatives. Here, we use a new, comprehensive data set of Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certified and non-certified oil palm plantation boundaries (191,561 km2) in Indonesia, the leading global producer of palm oil to generate robust spatio-temporal estimates of certification's impact on deforestation and fires from 2000-2014. We find that certification reduced forest cover loss embodied in RSPO certified palm oil through two mechanisms. Certification had a significant protective effect, which lowered plantation deforestation rates by 29%.However, due to preferential certification of plantations developed before 2000, little forest was available for protection; forest area conserved totaled 56±4.9 km2. Our models suggest that increased adoption of RSPO certification may reduce the ability of palm oil companies to selectively certify previously cleared regions, and consequently strengthen the role of certification in protecting the tropical forests at greatest risk from agricultural encroachment. We reflect upon the complex interactions between traditional government policies, and emerging market-based governance structures in this telecoupled system.