Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario
Abstract
Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2 degree C. We find that late decarbonization (LD) in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3 degree C and GMT remains above 2 degrees for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0 degrees for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMGC31I..07T
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis;
- POLICY SCIENCES