Modeling Earthquake Rupture and Corresponding Tsunamis Along a Segment of the Alaskan-Aleutian Megathrust
Abstract
Motivated by the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-Oki event, we explore the effects of realistic fault dynamics on slip, free surface deformation, and the resulting tsunami generation and local propagation from a hypothetical Mw 9 megathrust earthquake along the Alaskan-Aleutian (A-A) Megathrust. We demonstrate three scenarios: a spatially-homogenous prestress and frictional parameter model and two models with rate-strengthening-like friction (e.g., Dieterich, 1992). We use a dynamic finite element code to model 3-D ruptures, using time-weakening friction (Andrews, 2004) as a proxy for rate-strengthening friction, along a portion of the A-A subduction zone. Given geometric, material, and plate-coupling data along the A-A megathrust assembled from the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) team (e.g., Bruns et al., 1987; Hayes et al., 2012; Johnson et al., 2004; Santini et al., 2003; Wells at al., 2003), we are able to dynamically model rupture. Adding frictional-strengthening to a region of the fault reduces both average slip and free surface displacement above the strengthening zone, with the magnitude of the reductions depending on the strengthening zone location. Corresponding tsunami models, which use a finite difference method to solve the long-wave equations (e.g., Liu et al., 1995; Satake, 2002; Shuto, 1991), match sea floor displacement, in time, to the free surface displacement from the rupture models. Tsunami models show changes in local peak amplitudes and beaming patterns for each slip distribution. Given these results, other heterogeneous parameterizations, with respect to prestress and friction, still need to be examined. Additionally, a more realistic fault geometry will likely affect the rupture dynamics. Thus, future work will incorporate stochastic stress and friction distributions as well as a more complex fault geometry based on Slab 1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012).
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.S21B2728R
- Keywords:
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- 7209 Earthquake dynamics;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 7215 Earthquake source observations;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 8118 Dynamics and mechanics of faulting;
- TECTONOPHYSICSDE: 8163 Rheology and friction of fault zones;
- TECTONOPHYSICS