Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines
Abstract
As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.H53F1775X
- Keywords:
-
- 0496 Water quality;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 1804 Catchment;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1860 Streamflow;
- HYDROLOGY