Changing stream temperatures in a changing world: evaluating spatio-temporal patterns and trends across the eastern US

Stream temperatures drive biogeochemical processes and influence ecosystem health and extent, with patterns of stream temperature arising from complex interactions between climate, land cover, and in-stream diversions and dams. While each of these individual drivers may have well-understood implications for changing stream temperatures, considering the concomitant impacts of these drivers along the stream network is much more difficult. This is true especially for the eastern United States, where downstream temperature integrates many different upstream impacts. To begin to decipher the influence of these different drivers on changing stream temperatures and how these impacts may manifest through time, we examined trends for 66 sites with continuous stream temperature measurements across the eastern United States. Stream temperature records were summarized as daily mean, maximum, and mimimum values, and sites consisting of 15 or more years of data were selected for analysis. While annual stream temperatures at 53 locations were warming, a few sites on larger rivers (n = 13) have been cooling. To explore the timing of these changes as well as their implications for aquatic species, we calculated trends for seasonal extremes (average of the five warmest and coolest daily stream temperatures) during spring, summer, and fall. Interestingly, while some streams displayed strong warming trends in peak summer temperatures (n = 43), many streams also displayed cooling trends (n = 23). We also found that peak stream temperatures were warming faster in fall than in summer for many locations (n = 36). Results of this analysis show that warming (and cooling) happens at different times in different places, as a function of climate and anthropogenic impacts. Finally, we explore potential drivers of these different patterns, to determine the relative impacts of climate, land cover, and in-stream water diversions on stream temperature change. Given that the number of regulated stream miles is only increasing, improving our understanding of linkages between landscape drivers and stream temperature variation may have important outcomes for river management in a changing world.