Modeling Potential Climate Change Impacts on Row Crop Agriculture in the Midwestern United States

Existing research shows that climate change will significantly impact global agricultural production. While increases in temperatures, carbon dioxide concentrations, and solar radiation could be beneficial for crop growth in the next few decades, long term projections suggest that increases in extreme precipitation events and extreme heat could have devastating impacts on crop yields, according to the most recent U.S. National Climate Assessment. In the U.S. Midwestern Corn Belt, one of the world's top producing regions for corn and soybean, agricultural producers are already changing their practices based on perceptions of climate; however, effective long-term adaptation planning requires more detailed information about the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. In this study, crop models, embedded in hydrology models, have been used to examine how future changes in climate could impact corn and soybean for the Midwestern United States. Early results suggest that losses in corn yields could be as high as 40 percent and changes in soybean yields could range from losses of 24 percent to increases of 23 percent in the near future climate (2020-2049). Additional simulations are being conducted to determine climate change impacts on crop yields in the far future climate (2070-2099).