Calibration of an Unsteady Groundwater Flow Model for a Complex, Strongly Heterogeneous Aquifer
Abstract
Modeling of groundwater systems characterized by complex three-dimensional structure and heterogeneity remains a significant challenge. Most of today's groundwater models are developed based on relatively simple conceptual representations in favor of model calibratibility. As more complexities are modeled, e.g., by adding more layers and/or zones, or introducing transient processes, more parameters have to be estimated and issues related to ill-posed groundwater problems and non-unique calibration arise. Here, we explore the use of an alternative conceptual representation for groundwater modeling that is fully three-dimensional and can capture complex 3D heterogeneity (both systematic and "random") without over-parameterizing the aquifer system. In particular, we apply Transition Probability (TP) geostatistics on high resolution borehole data from a water well database to characterize the complex 3D geology. Different aquifer material classes, e.g., `AQ' (aquifer material), `MAQ' (marginal aquifer material'), `PCM' (partially confining material), and `CM' (confining material), are simulated, with the hydraulic properties of each material type as tuning parameters during calibration. The TP-based approach is applied to simulate unsteady groundwater flow in a large, complex, and strongly heterogeneous glacial aquifer system in Michigan across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The resulting model is calibrated to observed static water level data over a time span of 50 years. The results show that the TP-based conceptualization enables much more accurate and robust calibration/simulation than that based on conventional deterministic layer/zone based conceptual representations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.H31C1392C
- Keywords:
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- 1829 Groundwater hydrology;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1910 Data assimilation;
- integration and fusion;
- INFORMATICS