Groundwater withdrawal in the Central Valley, California: implications for San Andreas Fault stressing and lithosphere rheology

Anthropogenic perturbations to crustal loading due to groundwater pumping are increasingly recognized as causing changes in nearby fault stresses. We present preliminary analysis of crustal unloading in the Central Valley (CV), California, for the period 2006-2010 to infer Coulomb stress changes on the central San Andreas Fault (CSAF), lithospheric rheology, and system memory due to more than a century of groundwater withdrawal in the southern CV. We use data-driven unloading estimates to drive three-dimensional (3-D) finite element method models and compare model vertical surface deformation rates with observed GPS uplift rates outside the CV. Groundwater level changes are observed through well water elevation changes and through the resultant surface deformation (subsidence) by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and through broader scale changes in gravity from the GRACE satellite time variable gravity data [Famiglietti et al., 2011] that constrain the overall water volume changes. Combining InSAR with well-water data we are able to estimate the aquifer skeletal elastic and inelastic response and through a linear inversion derive the water volume (load) changes across the Central Valley and compare them with GRACE-inferred groundwater changes. Preliminary 3-D finite element method modeling that considers elastic and viscosity structure in the lithosphere gives three interesting results: 1) elastic models poorly fit the uplift rates near the SAF; 2) viscoelastic models that simulate different unloading histories show the past history of groundwater unloading has significant residual uplift rates and fault stress changes; 3) Coulomb stress change varies from inhibited on the locked (Carrizo) section to promoted on the creeping section of the SAF north of Parkfield. Thus, 3D models that account for lithosphere rheology, loading history viscous relaxation, have significant implications for longer-term time-dependent deformation, stress perturbation, and earthquake hazard on the nearby faults. Reference: Famiglietti, J. S., M. Lo, S. L. Ho, J. Bethune, K. J. Anderson, T. H. Syed, S. C. Swenson, C. R. de Linage, and M. Rodell, 2011, Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L03403, doi:10.1029/2010GL046442.