Documenting Uncertainty and Error in Gridded Growing Degree Day and Spring Onset Maps Generated by the USA National Phenology Network
Abstract
Since 2016 the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) has produced and delivered daily maps and short-term forecasts of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States. Because accumulated temperature is a strong driver of phenological transitions in plants and animals, including leaf-out, flowering, fruit ripening, and migration, these data products have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, determining planting dates, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. The USA-NPN is a national-scale program that supports scientific advancement and decision-making by collecting, storing, and sharing phenology data and information. We will be expanding the suite of gridded map products offered by the USA-NPN to include predictive species-specific maps of phenological transitions in plants and animals at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the future. Data products, such as the gridded maps currently produced by the USA-NPN, inherently contain uncertainty and error arising from multiple sources, including error propagated forward from underlying climate data and from the models implemented. As providing high-quality, vetted data in a transparent way is central to the USA-NPN, we aim to identify and report the sources and magnitude of uncertainty and error in gridded maps and forecast products. At present, we compare our real-time gridded products to independent, trustworthy data sources, such as the Climate Reference Network, on a daily basis and report Mean Absolute Error and bias through an interactive online dashboard.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.B43B0597C
- Keywords:
-
- 0414 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0439 Ecosystems;
- structure and dynamics;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0480 Remote sensing;
- BIOGEOSCIENCES