WRF Improves Downscaled Precipitation During El Niño Events over Complex Terrain in Northern South America: Implications for Deforestation Studies
Abstract
Precipitation in the complex terrain of the tropical Andes of South America can be strongly reduced during El Niño events, with impacts on numerous societally-relevant services, including hydropower generation, the main electricity source in Colombia. Simulating rainfall patterns and behavior in such areas of complex terrain has remained a challenge for regional climate models. Current data products such as ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and modelling products generally fail to correctly represent processes at scales that are relevant for these processes. Here we assess the added value to ERA-Interim by dynamical downscaling using the WRF regional climate model, including a comparison of different cumulus parameterization schemes. We found that WRF improves the representation of precipitation during the dry season of El Niño (DJF) events using a 1996-2014 observation period. Further, we use these improved capability to simulate an extreme deforestation scenario under El Niño conditions for an area in the central Andes of Colombia, where a big proportion of the country's hydropower is generated. Our results suggest that forests dampen the effects of El Niño on precipitation. In synthesis, our results illustrate the utility of regional modelling to improve data sources, as well as their potential for predicting the local-to-regional effects of global-change-type processes in regions with limited data availability.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.A51I0199R
- Keywords:
-
- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3355 Regional modeling;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE