The Antarctic Ozone Hole: New Approaches for Detection of the Onset of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery
Abstract
An important aspect of human influences on climate concerns the Antarctic ozone hole, the strong thinning of the thickness of the ozone layer during springtime over Antarctica, first observed in the early 1980s. Antarctic stratospheric ozone is expected to fully recover in the second half of the 21st century because of policy measures to eliminate emissions of ozone depleting substances. Identification of the onset of this recovery would mark an important scientific and political milestone, but has remained difficult so far owing to natural climate variability and methodological ambiguities. In this presentation, we will first give a brief introduction to methods that have been used in the past to try to identify the onset of recovery, and discuss their shortcomings and ambiguities. Secondly, we introduce and discuss a several observations-based new approaches for ozone recovery detection in the Antarctic Ozone Hole that we have developed, explain why we believe these methods are more robust than standard methods, and outline how they circumvent crucial pitfalls of the previously used methods. Finally, we present our analyses, showing that these new approaches applied to various sets of remote sensing observations provide the best evidence to date that that ozone destruction within the Antarctic Ozone Hole has significantly decreased since approximately the year 2000, and which can be attributed to concurrently decreasing ozone depleting substances.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.A42B..04D
- Keywords:
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- 3311 Clouds and aerosols;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES