Can the physical properties associated with uncertainties in the NASA MODIS AOD retrievals in the western U.S. be determined?

Previous investigations have used satellite remote sensing to estimate surface air pollution concentrations. While most of these studies rely on models developed for the dark-vegetated eastern U.S., they are being used in the semi-arid western U.S without modifications. These models are not robust in the western U.S. due to: 1. Irregular topography that leads to complicated boundary layer physics, 2. Pollutant mixtures, 3. Heterogeneous vertical profile of aerosol concentrations, and 4. High surface reflectance. Here, results from Nevada and California demonstrate poor AOD correlation between AERONET MODIS retrievals. Smoke from wildfires strengthened the aerosol signal, but the MODIS versus AERONET AOD correlation did not improve significantly during fire events [r2 0.17 (non-fire), r2 0.2 (fire)]. Furthermore, aerosol from fires increased the normalized mean bias (NMB) of MODIS retrievals of AOD[NMB 82% (non-fire), NMB 146% (fire)]. Additional results of this investigation found that aerosol plumes confined with the boundary layer improves MODIS AOD retrievals. However, when this condition is not met (i.e., 70% of the time downwind of mountains regions) MODIS AOD has a poor correlation and high bias with respect to AERONET AOD. Fire injection height, complicated boundary layer mixing, and entrainment disperse smoke plumes into the free atmosphere. Therefore, smoke plumes exacerbate the complex aerosol transport typical in the western U.S. and the non-linear relationship between surface pollutant concentrations and conditions aloft. This work uses stochastic methods, including regression to investigate the influence of each of these physical behaviors on the MODIS, AERONET AOD discrepancy using surrogates for each physical phenomenon, e.g., surface albedo for surface reflectance, boundary layer height and elevation for complex mixing, aerosol optical height for vertical aerosol concentrations, and fire radiative power for smoke plume injection height.