Dynamic Monitoring of Energy Services in Conflict Regions using Suomi-NPP VIIRS
Abstract
While remote sensing data has proven useful for understanding the environmental conditions surrounding conflict, it can also present a more nuanced, dynamic picture inside conflict zones. This study investigates the use of global nighttime environmental products as derived from the Suomi-NPP satellite's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to identify and track the location and timing of regional conflicts in the Middle East as reflected in changes to the region's energy infrastructure. The study focuses on a 43-month period (c. Jan 2012 - Aug 2015) over major urban centers in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Lebanon. The new daily dynamic products captured a series of striking downturns in energy service supply and demand that occurred in 2012 in the Syrian cities of Damascus (-50%) and Aleppo (-94%) corresponding to the onset of major military confrontations (The Battle of Aleppo on 7/15/2012 and The Damascus Bombing on 7/23/2012, respectively). Iraqi cities recently captured by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (e.g. Mosul, Tikrit, Tal Afor, Ramadi), also showed marked average decreases in energy service provision (-84% since 4/1/2014) compared to their unoccupied counterparts (e.g., Baghdad and Sulaimaniya at +6%). A seasonal trend decomposition analysis is used to disentangle climactic, social, and political factors affecting the VIIRS time-series, distinguishing between energy patterns associated with conflict and those associated with cultural festivals, load shedding, seasonal weather, and socioeconomic factors.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015AGUFMPA51B2211S
- Keywords:
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- 9810 New fields (not classifiable under other headings);
- GENERAL OR MISCELLANEOUS;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1632 Land cover change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1807 Climate impacts;
- HYDROLOGY