Urban Futures - Innovation Engines or Slums? A Stellar Evolution Model of Urban Growth

Why, as cities grow in size and density, do some "ignite" into global engines of innovation and prosperity while others grow into dense slums? This is our overarching question as we explore a novel framework for thinking about the evolution of cities and, more specifically, the divergent trajectories they may take. We develop a speculative framework by examining the analogies between the evolution of cities and the evolution of stars. Like cities, stellar gas clouds can grow in mass, eventually reaching temperature and density thresholds at which they ignite the hydrogen fuel in their cores to become full-fledged stars. But not all gas and dust clouds share this fate. Some never achieve the critical conditions and do not unleash the energy we witness emanating from our own star. Some stars, after exhaustion of their initial fuel, evolve to incredible density but lack the temperature to ignite the next fuel needed to maintain the critical interactions that release so much energy. Instead they fade away to an object of intense density, but without the vibrant emission of light and energy associated with non-degenerate stars. The fate of cities, too, depends on the density of interactions - not of gas molecules, but of people. This elevated rate of face-to-face interactions in an urban core is critical for the transition to an innovative and creative economy. Yet, density is not enough, as evidenced both by many megacities in the developing world and degenerate stars. What is this missing element that, along with density, ignites a city and turns it into an innovation engine? With these analogies in mind, we explore whether they are useful for framing future research on cities, what questions they may help pose, and, more broadly, how physical, social, and natural scientists can all contribute to an interdisciplinary endeavor to understand cities more deeply.