Optimizing Irrigation Water Allocation under Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in an Arid River Basin

Population growth and climate change add additional pressures affecting water resources management strategies for meeting demands from different economic sectors. It is especially challenging in arid regions where fresh water is limited. For instance, in the Tailanhe River Basin (Xinjiang, China), a compromise must be made between water suppliers and users during drought years. This study presents a multi-objective irrigation water allocation model to cope with water scarcity in arid river basins. To deal with the uncertainties from multiple sources in the water allocation system (e.g., variations of available water amount, crop yield, crop prices, and water price), the model employs a interval linear programming approach. The multi-objective optimization model developed from this study is characterized by integrating eco-system service theory into water-saving measures. For evaluation purposes, the model is used to construct an optimal allocation system for irrigation areas fed by the Tailan River (Xinjiang Province, China). The objective functions to be optimized are formulated based on these irrigation areas' economic, social, and ecological benefits. The optimal irrigation water allocation plans are made under different hydroclimate conditions (wet year, normal year, and dry year), with multiple sources of uncertainty represented. The modeling tool and results are valuable for advising decision making by the local water authority—and the agricultural community—especially on measures for coping with water scarcity (by incorporating uncertain factors associated with crop production planning).