Empirical regional models for the short-term forecast of M3000F2 during not quiet geomagnetic conditions over Europe
Abstract
An empirical regional model for the prediction of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as RM_M3000F2) was developed. Thanks to the IFELM_foF2 models, that are able to provide short-term forecasts of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2 _{STF}) up to three hours in advance, it was possible to considerer the Brudley-Dudeney algorithm as a function of foF2 _{STF} to correct RM_M3000F2 and thus obtaining an empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours in advance under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. From the long-term predictions of M3000F2 provided by the IRI model, an empirical regional model for the forecast of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2) was derived. IRI_RM_M3000F2 predictions were modified with the Bradley-Dudeney correction factor and another empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours ahead under not quiet geomagnetic conditions was obtained. The main results achieved comparing the performance of RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, IRI_RM_M3000F2, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD are: (1) in case of moderate geomagnetic activity, the Bradley-Dudeney correction factor does not improve significantly the predictions; 2) under disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley-Dudeney formula improves the predictions of RM_M3000F2 in all the European area; (3) in case of very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, Bradley-Dudeney algorithm is very effective in improving the performance of IRI_RM_M3000F2; (4) the forecasting maps originated by RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD, show some regions where the forecasts are not satisfactory, but also wide sectors where the M3000F2 forecasts quite faithfully match the M3000F2 observations, and therefore the proposed models could be exploited to produce short-term forecasting maps of M3000F2 over Europe up to 3 hours in advance.
- Publication:
-
40th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2014
- Bibcode:
- 2014cosp...40E2535P