A Framework for Modelling Probabilistic Uncertainty in Rainfall Scenario Analysis

Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources management modelling. Uncertainty if not considered appropriately in decision making will decrease reliability of decisions, especially in long-term planning. One of the challenges in Scenario Analysis is how scenarios are made. One of the most approved methods is statistical modelling based on Auto-Regressive models. Stream flow future scenarios in developed basins that human has made changes to the natural flow process could not be generated directly by ARMA modelling. In this case, making scenarios for monthly rainfall and using it in a water resources system model makes more sense. Rainfall is an ephemeral process which has zero values in some months which introduces some limitations in making use of monthly ARMA model. Therefore, a two stage modelling approach is adopted here which in the first stage yearly modelling is done. Within this yearly model three ranges are identified: Dry, Normal and Wet. In the normal range yearly ARMA modelling is used. Dry and Wet range are considered as random processes and are modeled by frequency analysis. Monthly distribution of rainfall, which is extracted from available data from a moving average are considered to be deterministic and fixed in time. Each rainfall scenario is composed of a yearly ARMA process super-imposed by dry and wet events according to the frequency analysis. This modelling framework is applied to available data from three rain-gauge stations in Iran. Results show this modelling approach has better consistency with observed data in comparison with making use of ARMA modelling alone.