Changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America from RegCM projections
Abstract
Future climate projections performed with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) are used to analyze the future changes on inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America. Two different global circulation models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMPI5) are used as boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations, which result in four different climate projections. Through a comparison of the precipitation annual cycles in reference period with future simulations, a shift in the annual cycle is found over Northwestern Mexico and Central America. During the rainy season (June to September), it is found an increase in the inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature, together with a warming greater than 4°C in the mean seasonal temperature and a drying of more than 20%. An increased warming on the Eastern Pacific Ocean compared to the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean potentially generates a strengthened North Atlantic Subtropical High Pressure and also a stronger Caribbean Low Level Jet. This future ENSO-like state appears to be the mechanism driving the drying over the region
- Publication:
-
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- April 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013EGUGA..15.3757F