Forecasting of Solar Activity in 24th Cycle Taking into Account its Non-Monotonous Grown Phase
Abstract
Development of solar activity in 24th cycle has specific peculiarity - non-monotonous increasing of solar activity on grown phase which occurs for 1/3 number of all cycles. The modification of Waldmayer's method was applied for forecasting 24th cycle which bases on a connection between maximum sunspot number and speed of increasing of activity on grown phase of cycle. If we compare 24th cycle with previous similar cycles Nos. 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15 s 16), one can conclude that this cycle will be weak, with maximum sunspot number Wmax (24) = 73 ? 10 in 2014-2015, most likely - in first half of 2014. Current cycle could be considered as anomalous because on different times of grown phase it gives manifestations of both weak and middle cycle.
- Publication:
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Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Astronomy
- Pub Date:
- June 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013BTSNU..50...30L
- Keywords:
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- Solar activity;
- Waldmeier method