Waves in Ice Forecasting for Arctic Operators

Sea ice cover is becoming increasingly weak and fragmented during the summer in the Arctic Ocean. This presents new opportunities for offshore engineering activities and shipping routes. However, operational forecasting models do not include waves in the partially ice-covered ocean, or their impact on the ice cover, which severely compromises the safety of potential human activities in these regions. Wave-ice interactions are composed of two coupled processes. First, ice floes cause wave energy to attenuate. Second, wave motion imposes strains on the ice cover, which can fracture the ice into small floes. We have developed the first model that incorporates both wave attenuation and ice fracture. The model predicts the evolution of the wave spectrum in the ice-covered ocean and the floe size distribution in the initial 10s to 100s of kilometers of ice-covered ocean, where waves control the maximum floe size allowable. The model is currently being nested in areas of operational interest in a pan-Artic ice-ocean model.