Perspectives on the Near-Earth Object Impact Hazard After Chelyabinsk

Until this year, the NEO impact hazard had been regarded as a theoretical example of a very low probability high consequence natural disaster. There had been no confirmed examples of fatalities directly due to asteroid or meteoroid strikes. (There still aren't.) The several megaton Tunguska event in 1908 was in a remote, unpopulated place. So human beings have been witnessing only the tiniest analogs of asteroid strikes, the night-sky meteors and occasional bolides, which - on rare occasions - yield meteoritic fragments that puncture holes in roofs. Though the NEO impact hazard has occasionally been treated in the natural hazards literature, interest primarily remained in the planetary science and aerospace communities. The Chelyabinsk asteroid impact on 15 February 2013 was a real disaster, occurring near a city with a population exceeding a million. Well over a thousand people were injured, thousands of buildings suffered at least superficial damage (mainly to windows), schools and sports facilities were closed, and emergency responders swarmed across the city and surrounding rural areas. While the consequences were very small compared with larger natural disasters, which kill tens of thousands of people annually worldwide, this specific case - for the first time - has permitted a calibration of the consequences of the rare impacts asteroid astronomers have been predicting. There now are reasons to expect that impacts by bodies tens of meters in diameter are several times more frequent than had been thought and each impact is more damaging than previously estimated. The Chelyabinsk event, produced by a 20 meter diameter asteroid, specifically suggests that asteroids just 15 meters diameter, or even smaller, could be very dangerous and damaging; indeed, a more common steeper impact angle would have produced more consequential damage on the ground. This contrasts with estimates a decade earlier [NASA NEO Science Definition Team report, 2003] that asteroids smaller than 40 to 50 meters diameter would explode harmlessly in the upper atmosphere. Given the observed size-frequency relation for NEOs, this means that dangerous impacts could be many tens of times more frequent than had been thought. New observing campaigns (e.g. ATLAS) oriented towards finding roughly half of the frequent smaller impactors meters to tens of meters in size during their final days to weeks before impact will soon result in warnings every few years of a potentially dangerous impact, perhaps requiring evacuation or instructions to shelter-in-place, even though most will turn out to be essentially harmless events. Warnings may become even more frequent as prudent emergency managers take into account the large uncertainties in sizes and destructive potential of these 'final plungers.' So emergency management officials around the world should at least be aware of the potential for a NEO impact to produce a real, if generally minor and local, natural disaster. Fortunately, success of the Spaceguard search for civilization-threatening large NEOs (> 1 km diameter) over the last 15 years has nearly retired the risk of global calamity by impact. So attention turns to the much smaller impacts that are far less dangerous, but soon will be frequently predicted and so cannot be ignored.