U.S. Regional Extreme Climate Conditions in CMIP5 simulations (Invited)
Abstract
In support of the development of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) report, CMIP5 simulations were analyzed to characterize regional conditions. The NCA3 is organizing its assessment around an 8-region breakdown of the U.S. This talk will provide a description of impacts-relevant climate conditions for these regions, focusing on precipitation-related variables but also examining temperature. Projections of mean precipitation do not provide a robust signal of either increases or decreases in most of the U.S. This lack of a robustly simulated direction of change extends to the end of the 21st Century. However, there are aspects of the precipitation climatology that exhibit a robust direction of change. Model simulations of extreme rainfall indicate future increases of 20% or more in the magnitude of the largest rainfall events under a high emissions scenario. Such increases are simulated even where mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease. Also, the length of dry spells is projected to increase in most areas, even in some areas where mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease. Thus, overall the precipitation climate is projected to become more extreme, with potentially important impacts on water-sensitive sectors. Changes in variability on a range of time-scales will be presented.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMGC44C..02K
- Keywords:
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- 1637 GLOBAL CHANGE Regional climate change;
- 1626 GLOBAL CHANGE Global climate models