Development of Nested Socioeconomic Storylines for Climate Change IAV Applications (Invited)
Abstract
Socioeconomic scenarios are important for understanding future societal consequences of climate and weather. The global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) represent a new opportunity for coordinated development and application of such scenarios to improve the representation of alternative societal development pathways within climate change consequence analysis. However, capitalizing on this opportunity necessitates bridging the scale disparity between the global SSPs and the regional/local context for which many impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) studies are conducted. To this end, we adopted the Factor, Actor, and Sector methodology to develop a set of qualitative national and sub-national socioeconomic storylines for the United States and U.S. Southeast using the global SSPs as boundary conditions. In particular, our study sought to develop storylines to explore alternative socioeconomic futures for the U.S. Southeast and their implications for adaptive capacity of the region's energy, water, and agricultural sectors. These storylines subsequently serve as the foundation for a range of downstream IAV applications. These include qualitative vulnerability analysis to explore interactions between energy, water, and agriculture in a changing climate; as well as quantitative impact assessment where regional storylines are used to establish modeling parameters within a biophysical crop model. Such methods and applications illustrate potentially useful opportunities for routinizing the use of SSP-based storylines in IAV studies.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMGC44B..04P
- Keywords:
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- 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1630 GLOBAL CHANGE Impacts of global change