Enhancing the Quantitative Representation of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) using the International Futures Model

The international research community is currently in the process of developing new scenarios for climate change research. One component of these scenarios are the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which describe a set of possible future socioeconomic conditions. These are presented in narrative storylines with associated quantitative drivers. The core quantitative drivers include total population, average GDP per capita, educational attainment, and urbanization at the global, regional, and national levels. At the same time there have been calls, particularly by the IAV community, for the SSPs to include additional quantitative information on other key social factors, such as income inequality, governance, health, and access to key infrastructures, which are discussed in the narratives. The International Futures system (IFs), based at the Pardee Center at the University of Denver, is able to provide forecasts of many of these indicators. IFs cannot use the SSP drivers as exogenous inputs, but we are able to create development pathways that closely reproduce the core quantitative drivers defined by the different SSPs, as well as incorporating assumptions on other key driving factors described in the qualitative narratives. In this paper, we present forecasts for additional quantitative indicators based upon the implementation of the SSP development pathways in IFs. These results will be of value to many researchers.