Subseasonal forecast skill of the 1988 U.S. drought is linked to human activities (Invited)
Abstract
Improving subseasonal hydrometeorological forecast skill for continental drought events to achieve stable water resources management and agricultural activities is a challenging task. The 1988 U.S. drought was one of the most severe extreme weather events in the U.S. followed by the 2012 U.S. drought. In this study, we perform several sets of ensemble forecast simulations starting on July 15 between 1986 and 1995 by using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), combined with several-human activity modules reflecting irrigation, domestic, industrial water demands associated with dam reservoir operation and groundwater pumping systems. Here, we find that the geographical distribution of subseasonal forecast skill for near surface hydrometeorological variables and precipitation over many regions in the Mississippi river basin is improved in the AGCM when these human activity modules are included in association with realistic land initializations. In addition, the use of the human activity modules contribute to decrease spreads for hydrometeorological variables among ensemble members in addition to smaller spread of surface soil moisture. This result suggests that keeping certain land surface wetness conditions for stable human activities is linking to decrease of freedom for atmospheric variables, and it could be called as the human induced land-atmosphere coupling.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMGC13E..05Y
- Keywords:
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- 1812 HYDROLOGY Drought;
- 1843 HYDROLOGY Land/atmosphere interactions;
- 1840 HYDROLOGY Hydrometeorology;
- 1842 HYDROLOGY Irrigation