Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012
Abstract
Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5,35, growth range limits for corn), and the sum of growing degree days between 20°C and 22°C (GDD20,22, optimal growth range for corn). And the precipitation-based indices include: cumulative precipitation, consecutive dry days, and number of extreme precipitation events in June. As to the decadal trend analysis in climatic factors, Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test are used. In the U.S. Corn Belt, annual mean Tavg ranges from 5.7°C to 14.7°C, and annual cumulative precipitation ranges from 396 mm to 1,203 mm. According to the decadal trend of annual mean Tavg and annual cumulative precipitation, 30 stations (45%) demonstrate a warm and dry trend, and 28 stations demonstrate a warm and wet trend. In monthly scale, Jun mean Tmin presents the most significantly increasing trend, and no significant decreasing or zero trend is detected from 1981 to 2012. During the climatological corn growing season, BD ranges from 76 to 128 DOY, ED ranges from 276 to 316 DOY, and GSL ranges from 150 to 242 days. From 1981 to 2012, BD is significantly advanced at the rate of 1 to 8 DOY per decade, ED is significantly delayed at the rate of 1 to 5 per decade, and GSL is significantly prolonged at the rate of 1 to 11 days per decade.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMGC13D1126D
- Keywords:
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- 1637 GLOBAL CHANGE Regional climate change;
- 0402 BIOGEOSCIENCES Agricultural systems;
- 0468 BIOGEOSCIENCES Natural hazards