New slip rate estimates for the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone

The potential for a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw ≥ 6.7) on the southern San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) is generally considered high (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2007). However, the proportion of slip accommodated by each of its three major fault strands (Mission Creek, Banning, and Garnet Hill, from north to south) in the Indio Hills is poorly constrained. Each of these strands cut through San Gorgonio Pass west to the Los Angeles metropolitan region. To better assess the relative importance of these faults and their potential for a major earthquake, we dated offsets at two sites on the Mission Creek fault in the central Indio Hills, an offset channel at Pushawalla Canyon and an offset debris cone at a small unnamed canyon located ~1.5 km farther southeast. Previous work on this strand at Biskra Palms, in the southern Indio Hills, demonstrated a slip rate between 12 and 22 mm/yr, with a preferred rate of 14-17 mm/yr (Behr et al., GSAB, 2010). It is generally assumed that the slip rate on the Mission Creek fault decreases northwestwards from Biskra Palms (e.g. Fumal et al., BSSA, 2002) towards these two sites in the central Indio Hills. However, our initial results from uranium-series dating of pedogenic carbonate and 10Be cosmogenic exposure dating of surface clasts from deposits offset 1.3-1.6 km since ~70 ka and 44-50 m since ~2.5 ka indicate that during the late Pleistocene and Holocene slip on the Mission Creek fault in the central Indio Hills has occurred at a relatively constant and unexpectedly high rate of ~20 mm/yr. Combined with published paleoseismic studies for the Mission Creek fault, which show an average earthquake recurrence interval of 225 years for the past 5 events since 900 AD (Fumal et al., 2002), these data imply an average slip-per-event of ~4.5 m. The last earthquake to rupture this section of the Mission Creek fault occurred over 300 years ago (ca. 1690), which indicates that ca. 5.0 to 7.5 m of strain may have accumulated since the last surface-rupturing event. While additional work is needed to better understand how slip along the SAFZ is partitioned in the northwestern Indio Hills, the new data underscore the seismic hazard posed by the Mission Creek fault in this region.