Modeling Strains Associated with Fluid Extraction

A class of strain signals found in data from a number of borehole strainmeters in the Plate Boundary Observatory network is believed to be associated with pumping of nearby water wells. In order to test the connection between fluid extraction and deformation, we have collected a multi- year record of the pump activity at two actively-pumped wells near the pair of strainmeters at the Pathfinder Ranch, a summer camp located in the Garner Valley in southern California. The data we have collected indicate strong correlations between (1) times of fluid extraction and the onset of significant strain and pore-fluid pressure changes, and (2) cumulative extraction volumes and the sizes of the pressure and strain perturbations. In order to model these observations, we use a sum of K autoregressive models to create a statistical description of the effect, and a poroelastic model to create a physical description. We show that for K = 2 the mixture model adequately preserves both long- and short-term effects, and can be used to construct a ';correction series' from the binary pumping series in a numerically efficient manner. Spatiotemporal strain and pore- fluid pressure fields associated with episodes of fluid extraction are simulated in a layered, radially extensive poroelastic medium. Based on the interpretations of our parameter exploration, the simplest model which fits the observed strains and pressures is a two layer model where rigid bedrock having relatively high diffusivity is overlain by roughly 100 meters of alluvium having slightly higher diffusivity and behaving as an unconfined aquifer system. The lack of a strong contrast in diffusivity between lithologic units suggests that the bedrock material has a relatively high density of hydraulically conductive fractures; borehole logging data and drillers' logs corroborate this. Further, the requirement that both layers have high conductivity helps explain the relatively low sensitivity of the aquifer system to dynamic strains from teleseismic surface waves and solid earth tides.