Global River Flood Risk in a Changing World (Invited)
Abstract
Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard for society globally. Over the last decades, we have seen indications that the impacts of flooding are becoming more severe. The increases in risk may be cause by on the one hand increasing frequency and intensity of flood events under climate change, and on the other, by growing potential impacts due to increases in population and the economic utilization of flood prone areas. In 2012, the global damage from floods was estimated to be about US 29 billion. For the first half of 2013, the global damage was already estimated to be US 45 billion. Almost half of this amount was due to river flooding such as the devastating floods in East Germany in June 2013. In this contribution we give insights into the size and causes of growth of river flood risk in the future and the consequences for adaptation investments. We investigate this by comparing estimates of current and future river flood risk at the global scale, taking into account that risks are likely to grow due to changes in climate change and socio-economic development. The flood risk estimates are based on a validated physical global flood risk model that utilizes current meteorological data, as well as climate scenario data as forcing to estimate hazard, and current as well as future socio-economic conditions as drivers for flood impact. Our study reveals that flood risk changes are very diverse from region to region, as are the drivers of that change. The results emphasize the importance of future investments in flood risk adaptation across the world and show which adaptation strategies should receive most attention.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFM.H51P..02W
- Keywords:
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- 1821 HYDROLOGY Floods;
- 1807 HYDROLOGY Climate impacts;
- 4328 NATURAL HAZARDS Risk;
- 4316 NATURAL HAZARDS Physical modeling