A Multi-Model Real Time Forecasting Prototype System in the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania)
Abstract
Remote sensing data and hydrologic models can respond to monitoring and forecasting needs in Africa and other poorly gauged regions. We present here the progress to date in developing a multi-model platform to provide hydrologic monitoring and forecasting using real time remote sensing observations. Satellite precipitation products such as CMORPH, TMPA (at 0.25° resolution) and PERSIANN-CCS (at 4km resolution) are used to force two models of different structure. One model is physically based and distributed, and the other is conceptual and lumped at the sub-basin level. The performance of both models is evaluated using different metrics, and the uncertainty in their predictions based on the errors incurred during the historical simulations period is computed. The models were compared and the potential increase in performance from using both models versus a single one will be assessed. This work provides insights into the advantages of a multi-model platform over a single model, with respect to different management and decision-making purposes. The methods were applied to the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania), where growing human demands on water and land use are likely to alter significantly the hydrologic balance of the basin and the ecosystems that depend on it. These efforts are part of the Applied Sciences Team of the NASA SERVIR Program in collaboration with its East Africa Hub at the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (Nairobi,Kenya).
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFM.H12A..05S
- Keywords:
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- 1833 HYDROLOGY Hydroclimatology;
- 1855 HYDROLOGY Remote sensing;
- 1860 HYDROLOGY Streamflow;
- 1880 HYDROLOGY Water management