Estimation of Coastal Freshwater Discharge into Prince William Sound using a High-Resolution Hydrological Model
Abstract
In Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, there is a pressing need for accurate estimates of the spatial and temporal variations in coastal freshwater discharge (FWD). FWD into PWS originates from streamflow due to rainfall, annual snowmelt, and changes in stored glacier mass and is important because it helps establish spatial and temporal patterns in ocean salinity and temperature, and is a time-varying boundary condition for oceanographic circulation models. Previous efforts to model FWD into PWS have been heavily empirical, with many physical processes absorbed into calibration coefficients that, in many cases, were calibrated to streams and rivers not hydrologically similar to those discharging into PWS. In this work we adapted and validated a suite of high-resolution (in space and time), physically-based, distributed weather, snowmelt, and runoff-routing models designed specifically for snow melt- and glacier melt-dominated watersheds like PWS in order to: 1) provide high-resolution, real-time simulations of snowpack and FWD, and 2) provide a record of historical variations of FWD. SnowModel, driven with gridded topography, land cover, and 32 years (1979-2011) of 3-hourly North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric forcing data, was used to simulate snowpack accumulation and melt across a PWS model domain. SnowModel outputs of daily snow water equivalent (SWE) depth and grid-cell runoff volumes were then coupled with HydroFlow, a runoff-routing model which routed snowmelt, glacier-melt, and rainfall to each watershed outlet (PWS coastline) in the simulation domain. The end product was a continuous 32-year simulation of daily FWD into PWS. In order to validate the models, SWE and snow depths from SnowModel were compared with observed SWE and snow depths from SnoTel and snow survey data, and discharge from HydroFlow was compared with observed streamflow measurements. As a second phase of this research effort, the coupled models will be set-up to run in real-time, where daily measurements from weather stations in the PWS will be used to drive simulations of snow cover and streamflow. In addition, we will deploy a strategic array of instrumentation aimed at validating the simulated weather estimates and the calculations of freshwater discharge. Upon successful implementation and validation of the modeling system, it will join established and ongoing computational and observational efforts that have a common goal of establishing a comprehensive understanding of the physical behavior of PWS.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFM.C41A0585B
- Keywords:
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- 1805 HYDROLOGY Computational hydrology;
- 1863 HYDROLOGY Snow and ice;
- 0740 CRYOSPHERE Snowmelt;
- 0798 CRYOSPHERE Modeling