Magnetic eta index and the ability to forecast sporadic E layer appearance
Abstract
We analysed the correlation of the changes of the magnetic vertical component with the ionospheric deviations from monthly median of the E layer characteristics. Promising results indicate that the eta parameter can be used to predict sporadic E layer during magnetically quiet days. Our previous work concern the data from only one year - 2004. During the descending phase of solar cycle in 2004 there was not numerous amount of quiet days. We extend our research to other years starting from 1996 and focusing on 2007 - 2009, years of the prolonged solar minimum. The analysis shows that under magnetically quiet circumstances the magnetic index eta indicates large magnetic disturbance, especially in vertical component when other magnetic indices inform about quiet magnetic conditions. The results indicate that the increase of the magnetic eta index (the ratio of the variations of vertical component of the external magnetic field to the horizontal component) is associated with the emergence of sporadic E layer or with increase of foEs critical frequency of sporadic E layer. The appearance of sporadic E layer followed 1-2 h after growth of magnetic index eta. An important conclusion is that the analysis of the hourly ionospheric data does not give 100% correlation between the increase of eta and the emergence of Es layer, however, studies of dense measurement data show that the correlation is almost 100%. An advantage of the eta index is the fact that after eliminating the effect of currents induced within the Earth, eta index bring independent and meaningful information on the system of current in the ionosphere. Hence, the eta index could be an important element of the ionosphere monitoring and can be used to predict such local phenomenon like the appearance of the sporadic E layer.
- Publication:
-
39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- July 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012cosp...39..495D